Devils Lake, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

860
FXUS63 KFGF 102012
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
212 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of rain moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday,
although probabilities for more than 0.10 inches are generally less
than 30 percent.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

...Synopsis...

The first 500mb system has pushed off to the east now, with the
next shortwave poised just upstream (over southwest Manitoba).
This shortwave will dive southeast toward the Great Lakes
tonight, possibly bringing some light rain/sprinkles to areas
along the Canadian border (mainly around the Lake of the Woods
region). The surface reflection will be a weak clipper system,
which will push a cold front through the FA tonight as well.
This will bring a period of gusty northwest winds, especially
during the mid to late evening period.

500mb ridging follows for Monday/Tuesday, with the next trough
passage Tuesday night into Wednesday. Tuesday looks to be a
windy day between these two systems, from gusty south winds. At
this point, it looks like it will remain just below Wind
Advisory criteria, but will keep an eye on it over the next few
days. In a similar fashion, 500mb ridging follows this trough
passage, with another potential system for next weekend.

...Next round of rain Tuesday night/Wednesday...

The next precipitation event for Tuesday night into Wednesday
continues to exhibit low predictability. It still looks like
there will be northern and southern stream waves and wave
interactions that will come into play. If the southern wave is
stronger, most of the available moisture will hold further
south. If the southern wave stays weaker, more moisture may work
up into this FA. On the positive side, there is really no cold
air to work with, so it should be a rain event again. As far as
amounts go, those don`t look all that impressive either. At
this point, the NBM shows less than a 30 percent probability for
rainfall amounts over 0.10 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Fog has slowly dissipated this morning at all sites, leaving in its
wake temporary but stubborn pockets BKN clouds, with IFR to LIFR
ceilings. These ceilings should improve through the afternoon as
winds help mix out these low clouds. A period of VFR conditions is
forecasted this afternoon at all sites, as clouds slowly scatter
out. KBJI has the shortest period of VFR due to the most persistent
stratus deck remaining across MN. Thereafter, attention turns to the
evening and overnight period, as a passing cold front will increase
winds and switch their direction to the northwest. Sustained winds
around 20 knots, with gusts approaching 30 knots are expected at all
sites except for KBJI, where values will be slightly lower. These
highest winds will occur between 23 UTC this evening and 6 UTC
Monday. Winds will decrease Monday, with clouds also clearing
through the morning hours.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Rafferty